Are Home Prices Dropping in Celina, TX?
Yes. Over the 12 months ending September 2026, the median single-family home in Celina sold for $515,000, down 12.5 percent from the 12 months before. Price per square foot fell almost as much, 11.0 percent, to a median of $187 (NTREIS, September 2026). That second number matters: this is not just a change in what kind of homes sold. Celina homes are selling for meaningfully less than they did a year ago.
Shanna Gerhart is a real estate agent in Celina, Texas helping move-up families sell and buy without moving twice.
Updated October 2026. Source: NTREIS Trends, the North Texas MLS, single-family residential.
How much have Celina home prices dropped?
About 11 to 12.5 percent in a year, depending on the measure, and roughly a fifth from the peak.
Celina single-family, 12 months ending Sept 2026
Median sale price: $515,000, down 12.5% from a year earlier.
Average sale price: $587,433, down 10.6% from a year earlier.
Median price per square foot: $187, down 11.0% from a year earlier.
Average price per square foot: $199, down 10.0% from a year earlier.
Source: NTREIS Trends, Residential, Single-Family, City of Celina, 12 months ending September 2026.
On the same 12-month basis, Celina's median sale price peaked at $649,200 in December 2024. At $515,000, it sits roughly 21 percent below that peak.
All four measures point the same direction by similar amounts. When the median, the average and the price per foot all fall 10 to 12.5 percent together, it is a real decline in value, not a quirk of which homes happened to close.
Why are Celina home prices dropping?
Not because buyers disappeared. Celina recorded 1,735 single-family closed sales over the 12 months ending September 2026, up 18.8 percent from the year before. Homes are selling. They are selling at lower prices, because supply grew even faster than buyers did. Three NTREIS numbers explain most of it.
1. There are a lot of homes for sale. Celina had 1,066 single-family homes for sale in September 2026, up 16.5 percent from a year earlier.
2. That is more than seven months of supply. At the recent pace of sales, it would take 7.3 months to sell every home on the market. Anything above about six months gives buyers the advantage.
3. Homes take longer to sell. The median Celina home took 68 days to go under contract over the past 12 months, up 23.6 percent. NTREIS counts days on market from listing to accepted offer.
Behind those numbers is the builder. Celina has new-construction communities actively selling across the city, and a builder can buy down a buyer's mortgage rate in a way a resale seller cannot easily match. A resale home is often compared to a new floor plan with a payment incentive attached the same afternoon. See how to sell against new construction in Celina and how new construction and resale compare in Celina and Prosper.
Are prices dropping in Prosper too?
Much less. Prosper's median single-family sale price was $850,000 over the same 12 months, down 1.3 percent. Its price per square foot fell further, 5.2 percent, to $235 (NTREIS, September 2026).
The two towns are adjusting in opposite ways. Celina sales rose 18.8 percent while prices fell. Prosper sales fell 11.3 percent, to 740, while the median price held. Celina sellers are meeting the market. More Prosper sellers are waiting it out, and fewer homes are changing hands.
Per foot, Celina softened about twice as fast as Prosper. The two towns sit side by side and get quoted as one market constantly. These numbers are why they should not be.
For every number this month in one place, see the Celina housing market update for October 2026 and the Prosper housing market update for October 2026.
How much are Celina sellers giving up from their first list price?
About 9 percent. Over the 12 months ending September 2026, the median Celina single-family home sold for 90.9 percent of its original list price, a figure down 2.7 percent from a year earlier (NTREIS).
That measure compares the sale price to the first list price, so it captures every price cut along the way. It is the number that shows what overpricing costs here. A home first listed at $700,000 that follows the median path closes near $636,300.
Are there any signs Celina is stabilizing?
Two early ones, and neither is a turn yet.
Fewer new listings are coming on. 250 single-family homes were newly listed in Celina in September 2026, down 9.4 percent from September 2025.
Months of supply is slightly lower than a year ago. 7.3 months in September 2026, down 5.2 percent. Still a buyer's market, but not a deepening one by that measure.
Prices on a 12-month basis are still falling. Easing supply shows up in price later, if it holds. Watch the monthly updates rather than any single month.
What does a price drop mean if you are selling in Celina?
Price from the last 90 days of sales, not last year's. A comparable sale from early 2025 describes a market about 11 percent higher per foot than this one.
Your first list price matters more than ever. The median seller gave up about 9 percent from where they started. The less of that you lose to cuts and waiting, the more you keep.
Compete on the payment, not only the price. A seller credit toward a buyer's rate buydown or closing costs speaks to the same monthly payment a builder's incentive does.
Know your net before you list. See what it costs to sell a home in Celina.
What does it mean if you are buying or moving up?
For a buyer, more than seven months of supply means room to negotiate on price, repairs, credits and timing.
For a move-up family selling and buying in Celina, the drop applies to both homes. An 11 percent discount on a larger next home is more dollars than an 11 percent discount on the smaller one you are selling. Moving from Celina into Prosper, the math is less kind: Celina softened per foot about twice as much as Prosper did. The part to plan carefully is the sequence. See whether to sell now or wait and how to buy and sell at the same time without moving twice.
What are the most common mistakes in a falling market?
Anchoring to what a neighbor got in 2024. The 12-month median peaked at $649,200 in December 2024, roughly a fifth above today's median.
Listing high to leave room. Room becomes price cuts. The median Celina seller already ends up at 90.9 percent of their first price.
Waiting for a rebound without a plan. Supply is easing slightly, but prices are still falling on a 12-month basis. Waiting is a bet, and it should be a deliberate one.
Using Prosper's numbers in Celina, or the reverse. A 1.3 percent drop and a 12.5 percent drop are not the same market.
An example: what an 11 percent drop per foot looks like
The figures below are an illustration built from the median price per foot, not a real home or a real sale.
The median Celina single-family home sold for $187 a square foot over the past 12 months. An 11.0 percent drop means the same measure was about $210 a year earlier.
For a 3,000 square foot home valued at the median rate, that is about $630,000 a year ago and about $561,000 now. A $69,000 difference on the same house, before any price cuts from a first list price that started too high.
Frequently asked questions
Are home prices dropping in Celina, TX? Yes. The median single-family sale price was $515,000 over the 12 months ending September 2026, down 12.5 percent from a year earlier, and median price per square foot fell 11.0 percent to $187 (NTREIS).
How much have Celina home prices dropped from the peak? On a 12-month basis, the median sale price peaked at $649,200 in December 2024. At $515,000 it is roughly 21 percent below that (NTREIS).
Why are Celina home prices going down? Supply outgrew demand. Sales rose 18.8 percent to 1,735 over the 12 months ending September 2026, but Celina still had 1,066 single-family homes for sale and 7.3 months of supply in September 2026, and new-construction incentives compete directly with resale homes (NTREIS).
Are Prosper home prices dropping too? Less. Prosper's median single-family sale price fell 1.3 percent to $850,000 over the 12 months ending September 2026, and price per square foot fell 5.2 percent to $235 (NTREIS).
How much below list price do Celina homes sell? The median Celina single-family home sold for 90.9 percent of its original list price over the 12 months ending September 2026 (NTREIS).
Is the Celina market starting to stabilize? There are early signs on the supply side. New listings fell 9.4 percent and months of supply fell 5.2 percent from a year earlier in September 2026, but prices were still falling on a 12-month basis (NTREIS).
What to do next
Get your home's number from the last 90 days of Celina sales, priced per square foot, with the cost of a too-high first price laid out before you choose one. Book a listing consultation, or call 972-467-9919.
Gerhart Realty Group, brokered by LPT Realty, LLC. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
